tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post7421402505467229379..comments2012-03-03T11:30:49.612-05:00Comments on Gears of 40K: Wolf Claws: Math-Hammer 40K timeBretthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03750328363084108119noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post-77204073803641023282011-04-19T06:11:14.697-04:002011-04-19T06:11:14.697-04:00Hi,
My name is Kirsten Williams and I work with c...Hi,<br /><br />My name is Kirsten Williams and I work with content for calculatem.com http://www.calculatem.com/ . We are now conducting a campaign towards blogs and for that reason, I am trying to get in touch with the person in charge of content and ads primarily on blogs.<br /><br />Is that you, or is there someone else I should speak to? Thanks for your time.<br /><br />Regards,<br />Kirsten Williams. :)<br /><br /><br /><br />kirsten.williams@multiadsagency.comKirstenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04424677820823833487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post-59421109631692025182009-10-29T18:22:11.883-04:002009-10-29T18:22:11.883-04:00@Colmarr: Space Wolf Codex, page 60, Wolf Claws: &...@Colmarr: Space Wolf Codex, page 60, Wolf Claws: "the owner must choose at the beginning of each Close Combat phase."<br /><br />So the analysis is Scenario 1 and thereby useful.Dverninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098608506710554678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post-49613211451836169752009-10-29T18:16:56.420-04:002009-10-29T18:16:56.420-04:00While you're obviously correct in saying that ...While you're obviously correct in saying that a re-roll is (generally) best used on the dice with the least chance of success, that ignores that fact that (presumably) one of the rolls has already been determined before the choice has to be made.<br /><br />A failed to-hit roll is no longer a probability. It is a determined result (no damage) unless the re-roll is used. So for that roll, there is no viable choice other than to use the re-roll.<br /><br />Ultimately, I can see this special ability working one of two ways:<br /><br />1. the player chooses before making any rolls; or<br /><br />2. the player chooses after making the to-hit rolls but before making wound rolls, and applies that choice to ALL attacks.<br /><br />In scenario 1, your analysis applies and is very helpful. In scenario 2, the math is much more complicated than you have allowed for.Colmarrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04137637331652486694noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post-67753410078185072652009-09-08T09:36:16.855-04:002009-09-08T09:36:16.855-04:00Excellent post, great read, thanks.
To an extent i...Excellent post, great read, thanks.<br />To an extent it was clear anyway, but having the mathematical evidence to hand is always useful. :)The_King_Elessarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04981821487098781957noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23117322.post-55274457331377879152009-07-29T11:39:29.056-04:002009-07-29T11:39:29.056-04:00Thanks for this. The results were fairly intuitiv...Thanks for this. The results were fairly intuitive, but I hadn't sat down and done the actual spread.<br /><br />I do see one item worth mentioning though: Where should a player spend the re-roll when the odds are even? A 4+/4+r may have the same statistics as a 4+r/4+, but what about probabilities? Say you have 10x dice...<br />4+/4+r rolls 10 to get 5 hits. Then rolls 5 to get 2.5 wounds. Re-roll 2.5 to get 1.25 more. Final average: 3.75. Total rolls: 17.5.<br />4+r/4+ rolls 10 to to get 5 hits. Then re-roll 5 to get 2.5 more. Then rolls 7.5 to wound. Final average: 3.75. Total rolls: 22.5.<br />So even though the averages are equal, the average number of rolls are not. <br /><br />The more points of reference within a probability matrix, the more likely the system is to generate a result accurate to the statistical norms.<br />Put more simply, the more rolls you have the less likely you are to get "dice-screwed".<br /><br />So the gambler will take the re-roll to wound, hoping for a lucky roll on his to-hit. But the calculating player will take it on his to-hit, knowing that it will give a better chance of getting the results he wants.<br /><br />Cheers and hope that gave you some food for thought.Dverninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18098608506710554678noreply@blogger.com